Swansenreport

Wisconsin Democrats are settling for a chaotic four-way primary for governor today, capping a race that saw a lieutenant governor’s campaign collapse under a finance scandal, a county executive quit and un-quit within ten days, and Republicans quietly spend millions trying to shape who comes out on top.

The four candidates remaining  on the ballot: state Rep. Francesca Hong, Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley, former state Department of Administration secretary Joel Brennan, and state Sen. Kelda Roys. All are seeking to replace Gov. Tony Evers, who announced last summer he wouldn’t seek a third term. The field once ran as high as seven or eight names before Sara Rodriguez, Mandela Barnes and the others dropped out.

Crowley’s path back into the race is its own story. He left in early July and endorsed Rodriguez, then reversed course a week later after her campaign imploded over campaign finance problems — reentering with Evers’ backing the same day. That in-and-out sequence probably didn’t help him. Crowley admitted as much on the trail, but said it also generated a jolt of attention he called a “movement moment.” Standing beside Evers at a Madison stop for volunteers Monday, Crowley put it differently: “I feel like we caught lightning in a bottle.” PBS Wisconsinpbswisconsin

Governor Evers has been campaigning hard for him. At a Madison rally that drew hundreds Sunday night, the governor told supporters Crowley was the party’s best shot against Republican Rep. Tom Tiffany, warning that a Tiffany win would amount to “electing Donald Trump as governor of the state of Wisconsin.” pbswisconsin

Hong, meanwhile, has held a clear lead in most public polling and built the more visible grassroots coalition, campaigning recently in Milwaukee alongside political streamer Hasan Piker and Minnesota Rep. Ilhan Omar. She’s framed her candidacy as bigger than the primary itself, telling supporters this week the goal is uniting the party to beat Tiffany in November.

The GOP money angle

The unexpected development, that’s drawn the most national notice is where Republican money has landed. The Republican Governors Association’s Right Direction Wisconsin PAC opened with roughly $2.2 million in TV ads in July branding Hong “dangerously liberal,” according to WPR reporting at the time, and by early August the PAC’s total spending against her had climbed toward $3.6 million, per AP figures corroborated by Wisconsin Democracy Campaign’s independent tracking of PAC filings — a watchdog group whose own count put the initial buy above $3.1 million.

The ads targeted Hong on opposition to ICE and past comments about defunding police. But Democrats — including her own primary rivals — have openly argued the buy is designed to boost her, not sink her, on the theory Hong would be the easier general-election opponent for Tiffany. Crowley has made that case directly. So has Brennan, who told supporters in a campaign email the ads are meant to elevate a candidate Republicans are “confident they can beat in November” over her positions on policing and prisons.

Campaign spending on Hong’s behalf from outside groups has told a similar story from another direction. A group called Middle Class Priorities has put roughly $970,000 behind Hong, financed in part by an out-of-state group Nebraska Democrats have separately accused of acting as a Republican front operation designed to meddle in Democratic primaries.

By contrast, Crowley’s own campaign and allied groups have outspent everyone else on the Democratic side on ads — about $4 million by one ad-tracking estimate — while Hong and groups backing her have spent under half a million.

What’s next

Whoever wins faces Tiffany, who was unopposed in any meaningful sense on the Republican side and entered August with roughly ten times the cash on hand of either Hong or Crowley. Democrats are treating the governor’s office as central to a broader push for full control of state government for the first time in sixteen years — a goal that depends on holding a seat Evers has occupied since 2019.