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SCOTUS Set to Rule: Must Ballots Be Received by Election Day? Decision Could Reshape November Midterms.

A ruling expected from the U.S. Supreme Court by late June could fundamentally change how ballots are counted in more than a dozen states — just months before the most competitive midterm elections in years. And based on the March 23 oral arguments, the court’s conservative majority appears ready to say yes: Election Day means what it says.

The case, Watson v. Republican National Committee, arose from a Mississippi law enacted during COVID-19 that allows mail-in ballots to be counted if they are postmarked by Election Day and received within five business days afterward. The Republican National Committee, the Mississippi Republican Party, and the Libertarian Party challenged the law as conflicting with the federal statute — passed in 1845 — that establishes the Tuesday after the first Monday in November as “Election Day.” Wisconsin Right Now

After more than two hours of argument, a majority of justices appeared to agree with the challengers. Justice Samuel Alito noted the difficult “line-drawing problems” created by state grace periods and suggested late-arriving ballots could shift outcomes and create perceptions of fraud. Justice Brett Kavanaugh echoed the point, noting that the practice expanded dramatically during COVID and therefore lacks the long historical tradition that might justify the Court’s deference. Wislawjournal

The court’s liberal justices pushed back, arguing that the federal statute sets Election Day without specifying when ballots must be received, and that a ruling striking down grace periods could also imperil early in-person voting — a point that also appeared to give Chief Justice Roberts and Justice Barrett some pause. “It just seems inconceivable that on the basis of this kind of evidence, we would reject practices that are so entrenched in 30 states,” Justice Kagan said. Fox News

Fourteen states and Washington, DC, currently allow mail ballots to be counted if received after Election Day, provided they are postmarked in time. California, New York, Texas, Illinois, Nevada, and Alaska are among them. Most battleground states — including Michigan, Pennsylvania, and Wisconsin — already require ballots to be received by Election Day, meaning Wisconsin voters would likely be unaffected by a ruling against Mississippi. Newsweek

Election officials across the country warned the Court in an amicus brief that forcing a change just months before the November election risks “confusion and disenfranchisement” in states that have operated under relaxed deadlines for years. Mississippi’s own solicitor general noted that the Trump administration and its allies had yet to produce a single documented case of fraud caused by a late-arriving mail ballot. WXPR

A ruling is expected by late June or early July — early enough to govern November’s midterms. If the conservative majority rules as the oral arguments suggested, states with post-Election Day receipt deadlines will face an abrupt scramble to change their procedures before voters start requesting absentee ballots this fall.

Sources: SCOTUSblog | CNN Politics | NBC News | Votebeat | Congress.gov / CRS